The world is facing a growing epidemic of myopia, and the future is unclear. Myopia could affect nearly 40% of young people by 2050.
almost 40% of young people. If the past 30 years are any indication, more than 740 million children and teenagers could have difficulty seeing objects at a distance by 2050, according to new estimates. These worrying projections are based on a global analysis that examined the prevalence of myopia using data collected from 50 countries through 2023.
Previous estimates only considered data up to 2015, but even then half the world’s population was predicted to be affected by myopia by 2050.
Myopia could affect hundreds of millions of children in the coming decades
The new analysis, led by researchers at Sun Yat-Sen University (China), considered 276 studies covering about 5.4 million children and adolescents and nearly 2 million cases of myopia.
Public health scientists, led by Jinghong Liang, found that between 1990 and 2023, the global prevalence of myopia in people aged 5 to 19 years increased from 24% to 36%.
The prevalence was highest in Japan, where 86% of children and adolescents suffer from myopia. The country with the lowest prevalence was Paraguay, with only 0.84%, .
If the deterioration of vision and adolescents continues at the same rate, the prevalence of myopia among young people worldwide could reach almost 40% by 2050, exceeding 740 million cases. In Asia, prevalence could reach nearly 70% by 2050.
What exactly caused the increase in cases of myopia?
But what if the rate rises faster? Over the past 30 years, and especially after 2020, the data suggest that the prevalence of myopia has increased, and not just in a few places.
Previous studies have also linked the COVID-19 pandemic to deteriorating vision among children. In 2020, for example, researchers in Hong Kong detected a rapid increase in myopia among 709 children between the ages of 6 and 8.
Although genetics undoubtedly plays a role in myopia, it cannot fully explain the recent increase in cases globally. Even when a child has both myopic parents, one study found that if they don’t spend enough time outdoors, the genetic risk of myopia increases to about 60 percent.
It is believed to reduce the risk of myopia in children, and during the pandemic, many children were limited to indoor activities. In addition, school was often conducted virtually, which meant more time than usual spent in front of screens.
“This is particularly significant for preschoolers, who are in a critical period of visual development characterized by great plasticity,” argue the authors of the recent global review.
“It is necessary to collect data to measure changes in the prevalence of myopia among young people over time, as there were notable differences by both ethnicity and geography,” they add.
In Africa, for example, the prevalence of myopia in children and adolescents is seven times lower than in Asia.
Myopia could affect the next generation. What can we do to prevent this?
No one yet knows exactly why this is so, but there is a correlation between the length of education and the occurrence of myopia. In Singapore and Hong Kong, children as young as two or three years old are actively engaged in educational programs before formal schooling. “It is plausible that early introduction of formal educational practices at an early age influences the incidence of myopia in childhood,” suggest Liang and colleagues.
“These findings represent an important step toward understanding trends in myopia over time, particularly in populations experiencing rapid transitions in myopia and significant growth during the COVID-19 pandemic,” the researchers say.
The authors argue that it is critical to identify why myopia is increasing among young people and find evidence-based ways to prevent vision loss in the next generation.
The study was published in .
