Data scientist Sergio Denicoli, CEO of AP Exata, states that the loyalty of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) voters remains evident in voting intention surveys in large Brazilian cities, such as Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte.
This observation comes amid a scenario of growing criticism of the former president and divisions within the right-wing political spectrum.
According to Denicoli, approximately 20% of the electorate shows “full confidence” in Bolsonaro, a percentage that is in line with the performance of candidates more aligned with Bolsonaroism in the capitals.
“This scenario has changed a little over time”, ponders the expert.
Negative feelings and divisions on the right
AP Exata’s analysis reveals that 41.2% of negative feelings related to Bolsonaro express frustration and indignation due to political alliances and supposed insubordination to the objectives of Valdemar Costa Neto, president of the PL.
The sadness expressed by supporters reflects disappointment with the division of the right, contrasting with the perception of a more united left after internal disputes.
Denicoli highlights that there is a significant aversion to PL alliances, including the support of party deputies for the PT government and coalitions with sectors of the left.
Furthermore, there is fear about possible electoral defeats for candidates supported by Bolsonaro.
Impact on municipal elections
Despite the criticism and divisions, the candidates supported by Bolsonaro have shown themselves to be well positioned compared to those supported by President Lula in the electoral disputes in the capitals.
This phenomenon suggests that, even with the challenges faced, Bolsonarism maintains a solid base of support in important urban centers.
The current political scenario, therefore, presents a complexity that defies simplistic analyses.
While the right faces internal rifts and criticism of its most prominent leader, Bolsonaro’s influence at the polls remains significant, especially in Brazil’s big cities.
