Employees of ETH Zurich assessed the likelihood of a new eruption of Vesuvius.
The name of the volcano is known throughout the world, and everyone remembers what happened to the population of Pompeii and Herculaneum. The last time one of Europe’s dangerous volcanoes woke up was in 1944.
Experts warn that history may repeat itself, but this will happen no sooner than in hundreds of years, writes.
A new eruption of Vesuvius will not be possible without new victims, and to assess the likely consequences, Swiss and Italian scientists have assessed the risk of a new eruption.
To do this, it was necessary to analyze the activity of the volcano over the past 10,000 years.
The worst case scenario could be something similar to the Avellino eruption 3,950 years ago.
In addition, the catastrophe could repeat itself according to the scenario of the eruption of 79 (the death of Pompeii), as well as the events of 8890 BC. e. and 472 AD e. (weakest eruption).
Thus, it was possible to find out that the most explosive type of magma of Vesuvius is stored in the reservoir of the upper crust.
Several thousand years may pass between the flow of magma from the lower crust triggering an eruption.
The interval between these historical events is approximately 5 thousand years.
There were no more than a thousand years between modern eruptions.
Scientists call the last awakening of Vesuvius, which occurred about 80 years ago, the beginning of a new long period of hibernation.
While the volcano is accumulating explosive magma, it will take a long time for a powerful eruption to occur again (as during the destruction of Pompeii).
