The fragmentation of the political right in Brazil does not necessarily indicate its weakening, according to Sergio Denicoli, CEO of AP Exata and data scientist.
In an analysis of the current political scenario, Denicoli argues that this division could be a sign of consolidation of the conservative movement in the country.
According to the expert, Brazil has become increasingly conservative, a phenomenon evidenced by the growth of churches and the change in the left’s stance in relation to some of its traditional agendas.
This scenario has created opportunities for the advancement of the right and influenced the positioning of the political center.
Bolsonaro’s role and the dispute for space
Denicoli compares former president Jair Bolsonaro to a “queen of England” in the current political context. He explains: “People ask him for blessings, they avoid speaking ill of him, but they try to overcome this leadership.”
This dynamic reflects the search for political space within the right, especially with a view to the 2026 elections.
The analyst notes that Bolsonaro, previously considered an almost unanimous leader among the right, now faces criticism.
Some more radical factions accuse him of giving in to the party’s wishes and being more aligned with the traditional political system.
Movements for 2026
Recent political movements, including criticism of governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and the PSD, are interpreted by Denicoli as part of a strategy aimed at the 2026 presidential elections.
He highlights that there is an attempt to occupy the political space left by Bolsonaro’s ineligibility.
“It seems to me that the forces are coming together to try to avoid subordination to Bolsonaro, since the space he occupied is leaving a vacuum”, concludes Denicoli, highlighting the complexity of the political game that is shaping up for the coming years.
