“The first manned flights to Mars with Starship will take place in 4 years take place. After that, flights will increase exponentially, with the goal of becoming a self-sufficient city 20 years to build.”
With all the hate and political noise, that Elon Musk Most recently on the news service X, which he owns, this bold statement has been somewhat lost. A few years ago this would have been dismissed as just one of his pipe dreams. Even those NASA last year described it as “bold goal“, bis 2040 to land astronauts on Mars. Experts now consider the billionaire’s ambition to send people to Mars in 4 years to be realistic.
Musk’s current forecast has not only stimulated discussions about the “How“rekindled when asked about the trip to Mars, but also the “Why“. More precisely: “Why him?Why is Musk apparently so obsessed with Mars?
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“Savior of Humanity”
If you ask the billionaire himself, you will hear the philanthropic answer: “If we are multi-planetary, we increase the life expectancy of our entire existence” – so Musk wants nothing less than that Ensuring survival of humanity.
Economic analysts and experts see another reason: It’s a huge one PR-Stunt. This does not mean that the venture is doomed to failure or will never happen – quite the opposite. Actually achieving this goal, not just talking about it, is essential for Musk’s plans.
The origins of SpaceX
Musk has been forging Mars iron for a long time. 2001 He became interested in the topic after seeing on NASA’s website that there were no plans for a manned mission to Mars. A year later he founded SpaceX. He came to the conclusion that Mars colonization could only work if… cheaper rocket launches are possible. After all, you have to bring a lot of people and material to Mars to build a colony there.
This origin story fittingly concludes today’s SpaceX’s core business a: cheaper rocket launches. This is mainly used to bring satellites into space and, in recent years, cargo and astronauts to the ISS.
So what Musk did here and is still doing is very clever. He has set a big goal that seems impossible even for NASA, the space agency of the most powerful country in the world, to create commercially successful services along the way.
So he could investors, talented employees and Attention secure. You probably can’t attract ambitious rocket scientists to the company with “We want to put satellites into space cheaply” as well as with: “We will soon take people to Mars.” It’s similar with investors and customers: you’re more likely to trust a company that you know from the media because of your ambitious goals and a boss who insists on achieving them, or an unknown rocket start-up that perhaps once had an information stand at a space conference somewhere?
“That’s the core of what the whole Mars thing is about: attracting talent and getting passion, capital and hard work from everyone involved with SpaceX,” says Matthew Weinzierl zum , who specialized in space economics at Harvard University: “The Mars mission has always been the core issue with which SpaceX justifies its existence.”
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Starship: A space truck
Musk knows he can’t let up now. “With this aggressive schedule, SpaceX wants to show that it is not slowing down or resting on its laurels. “It wants to show that you won’t become a lazy company that dominates space travel,” says Weinzierl. Despite its market dominance in rocket launches, SpaceX wants to maintain its reputation as agile company that dreams of great goals – for the benefit of humanity.
Plays an important role in this Starship. It is seen as the spacecraft that will take people to Mars in the future. That could really be the case, but it is often referred to as “Space truck“ will be used, which will bring large loads, including many satellites at once and components of space stations, into orbit. And because it is reusable, meaning it should land back on earth after the flight, just like the parts of the rockets that take it into space, Start-up costs fall again.
Less costs means more customers and more profit. If Musk were to announce this so clearly instead of continuing to insist on human conquest of Mars, it could cause unrest among employees and investors. One could accuse Musk of sacrificing SpaceX’s dream for profit – after all, the trip to Mars is the reason the company exists in the first place and not the cheap transport of satellites into space.
2028 to Mars: Realistic, but no return
Starship is not yet ready to undertake this journey or to begin its job as a space truck. The next Test flight should take place in November at the earliest.
Nevertheless, should 2026 According to Musk, several Starships will fly unmanned to Mars and land there. If everything goes well, then… 2028 People will be brought to Mars – otherwise further test flights to the Red Planet will take place.
The 2 year interval there is no coincidence in this timeline. Because every 2 years, Earth and Mars are in the best position to make the journey with as little energy as possible. Little energy expenditure means that less fuel is needed for the route and therefore more payload can be transported.
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The journey to Mars takes between 7 and 9 months. At least experts believe that Starship will make this flight soon plausible. “A first flight in 2026 is not impossible, but very ambitious,” says Robert ZubrinPresident of the Mars Society, to the Guardian: “2028, however, is quite possible. However, we are talking about a journey of no return.”
There wouldn’t be enough fuel to return. Even if the 2026 flights were to place fuel on the surface of Mars so that the crew of the Starship that landed two years later could refuel for the return flight, that would be unrealistic. Because in order to catch the most energy-saving time window for returning to Earth, people would have to do well 16 Fun endure on Mars.
Gas stations in orbit
A possible alternative that SpaceX is also exploring is OOS: On-Orbit Staging. Either whole Engine stages or Fuel tanks placed in the orbit of Earth and Mars. After taking off from Earth, Starship would either connect to the engines or fill its own tanks to the brim using the fuel tanks.
Then it starts at higher speed 120 days to Mars. You stay there until 14 Roofs. It will then be launched from the surface and refueled at the fuel tank in Mars orbit. The return flight to Earth takes time 75 Roofs. However, the OOS plan is not yet sufficiently developed. From today’s perspective, it is impossible that this can be implemented quickly enough for 2028 people to set off on a round trip to Mars that will last a total of almost 8 months.
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Mars City as the next big incentive
Space researchers therefore accuse Musk of being the “easy way” gain weight. He provides the means of transport – someone else should take care of how the people will survive on Mars after he abandons them there. “That’s one of the problems I have with Musk’s claim. SpaceX is working hard on the transportation system, but not on manufacturing systems oxygen, Water and Energy on Mars. Humans need these things to survive on Mars,” says Zubrin.
Therefore, the “self-sufficient Mars city in 20 years” does not seem to be feasible from today’s perspective. However, Zubrin assumes that SpaceX will most likely achieve most of Musk’s goals – at a later date.
Weinzierl questions whether SpaceX still needs Musk as a vocal dreamer to achieve these goals: “Musk has done a lot to establish a culture at SpaceX that attracts incredibly talented people. But now the culture is ingrained in the minds of so many SpaceX employees that the company no longer relies so heavily on Musk.”
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