The new Genial/Quaest survey confirmed what President Lula’s allies feared: the government’s approval dropped to a level close to 30%, considered the PT’s “floor”.
According to the survey, the government is approved by 32% of the Brazilian population. Another 31% evaluate the government negatively and 33% believe that the government’s performance is regular.
In comparison with July, the survey shows a downward fluctuation of four percentage points in the positive assessment; three points up on the regular index; and one up on the negative.
In August, Lula’s allies already assessed that this lower level – similar to that of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the same period of office – could become irreversible and an obstacle to re-election in 2026.
Filipe Nunes, responsible for Genial/Quaest, told CNN that one of the difficulties is transforming the economic measures adopted by the government into popularity.
“Lula arrives with low political capital at the ballot box in 2024 and with great challenges for 2026”, assesses Nunes.
The assessment of the President of the Republic also confirms what his advisors at Palácio do Planalto already pointed out as a government problem: the difficulty of “piercing the bubble” and opening dialogue with voters from other political spectrums.
Lula’s work is approved by more than half of Brazilians (51%) – a drop of three points compared to the 54% who approved him in the July survey. Meanwhile, 45% of the population disapprove of him.
“Lula maintains approval among those who voted for him in 2022, and rejection among those who voted against him. (…) It doesn’t win over anyone new, but it also doesn’t lose its base. It’s a government from your bubble.”, added Nunes.
Lula’s disapproval is concentrated in the Southeast (from 48% to 53%), voters over 60 years of age (from 37% to 48%), incomplete higher education (from 51% to 59%) and those earning up to two minimum wages (from 26% to 32%).
For Lula’s ministers, however, it is necessary to look at the positive side of the research.
Paulo Pimenta, from the Secretariat of Social Communication (Secom), cited two points: that the president’s positive assessment is still above the negative and the tie between good and bad news about the government.
